After the relatively slow growth of 7.8% in 2012, the lowest annual rate of expansion since 1999, the economy is expected to stabilize with annual growth edging up to an average of 8% over 2013?17. This reflects continued urbanization and industrial upgrading. The economy is also expected to become more balanced, assuming that the government?s policy measures, which include greater rural social welfare, are successful in boosting domestic consumption.
Synopsis
The report provides detailed market analysis, information and insights, including:
– Historic and forecast tourist volumes covering the entire Chinese travel and tourism sector
– Detailed analysis of tourist spending patterns in China
– The total, direct and indirect tourism output generated by each category within the Chinese travel and tourism sector
– Employment and salary trends for various categories in the Chinese travel and tourism sector, such as accommodation, sightseeing and entertainment, foodservice, transportation, retail, and travel intermediaries
– Detailed market classification across each category, with analysis using similar metrics
– Detailed analysis of the airline,?hotel, car rental and travel intermediaries industries.
Scope
This report provides an extensive analysis related to the tourism demands and flows in China:
– It details historical values for the Chinese tourism sector for 2008?2012, along with forecast figures for 2013?2017
– It provides comprehensive analysis of the travel and tourism demand factors with values for both the 2008?2012 review period and the 2013?2017 forecast period
– The report provides a detailed analysis and forecast of domestic, inbound and outbound tourist flows in China.
– It provides employment and salary trends for various categories of the travel and tourism sector
– It provides comprehensive analysis of the trends in airline, hotel, car rental and travel intermediaries industries, with values for both the 2008?2012 review period and the 2013?2017 forecast period
Key Highlights
– After the relatively slow growth of 7.8% in 2012, the lowest annual rate of expansion since 1999, the economy is expected to stabilize with annual growth edging up to an average of 8% in 2013?17. This reflects continued urbanization and industrial upgrading. The economy is also expected to become more balanced, assuming that the government?s policy measures, which include greater rural social welfare, are successful in boosting domestic consumption.
– Domestic tourist volume increased from 958.8 million tourists in 2008 to 1.6 billion in 2012, at a CAGR of 14.02% during the review period. Over the forecast period, trip volumes will increase at a CAGR of 13.83% to reach 3.1 billion by 2017. The key growth drivers over the forecast period will be increased wealth and leisure time, and an improved transport network. Over the forecast period, domestic tourist expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 26.17%, to reach CNY7.8 trillion (US$1.2 trillion) by 2017.
– China?s tourism sector is dependent on domestic tourism due to the country?s strict visa policy and group tour restrictions for traveling abroad. Domestic tourist flows are very high as compared to inbound tourist volumes. In 2012, China registered 1.6 billion domestic trips, while inbound trips were recorded at 59.4 million. China?s is the world?s largest domestic tourism market.
– Inbound spending increased across all categories except foodservice during the review period, with the transportation category registering the largest growth at a CAGR of 3.78%. Transportation accounted for the largest proportion of total inbound tourist expenditure in 2012 with a 35.5% share. Over the forecast period, the travel intermediaries category is expected to record the highest CAGR of 7.82%, followed by retail with a CAGR of 4.70% and foodservice with 4.65%. The total inbound expenditure is expected to increase from CNY3.1 trillion (US$498.4 billion) in 2012 to CNY3.9 trillion (US$618.4 billion) in 2017. Economic improvement in the eurozone countries and favorable regulatory changes will be the key growth drivers of inbound tourism.
– Chinese tourists are high spenders, and outbound tourism is also increasing, so numerous countries are creating strategies to attract Chinese tourists. Cambodia?s Ministry of Tourism, for example, has developed a five-year strategic plan to attract at least 1.3 million Chinese visitors by 2018.
– China?s air traffic volume, both domestically and internationally, increased during the review period. Passengers carried by Chinese as well as foreign airlines reached 313.8 million in 2012, expanding at a CAGR of 12.90% during the review period. Over the forecast period, the number of passengers carried is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.90% to reach 437.9 million. The total revenue is also anticipated to increase from CNY333.9 billion (US$52.8 billion) in 2012 to CNY515.0 billion (US$81.5 billion) in 2017. The growth is in line with the increasing tourist volumes and air capacity.
– Total revenues generated by hotels in China increased at a CAGR of 14.89% during the review period. Total revenues are expected to increase at a CAGR of 8.57% to reach CNY480.4 billion (US$79.2 billion) by 2017, in line with a steady rise in tourism volumes, rising disposable incomes, and accommodation available at competitive prices. The highest numbers of inbound trips in 2012 came from Hong Kong with 36.4 million and Macau with 10.6 million.
– China?s car rental market grew at a CAGR of 18.15% during the review period to reach a value of CNY22.8 million (US$3.6 billion) in 2012. It is expected to reach CNY47.3 billion (US$7.5 billion) by 2017, recording a CAGR of 15.87% over the forecast period. Increases in international and domestic tourists, increase in urbanization rates, the high costs of owning and driving a car, and new government policies are curbing private car usage.
– China?s travel intermediaries market value is anticipated to increase at a CAGR of 17.12% over the forecast period to reach CNY726.3 billion (US$4.1 billion) in 2017. This increase will be driven by a rise in discretionary spending, increased business travel, and rising efforts to promote the travel sector in China internationally. The market share of online intermediaries is expected to increase with growing internet penetration. The online travel channel?s share of the travel intermediaries industry is expected to increase from 21.1% in 2012 to 36.4% in 2017. Consequently, the in-store channels market share is anticipated to decline from 78.9% in 2012 to 63.6% in 2017.
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